I will have more to say on this later today when the full data sets come in, but always good to look at the half runs.
Moisture still looks to be playing a part in infusing cold fronts that race through the southern ocean over the coming week, lifting rainfall chances for not only coastal areas but southern inland SA, southern and central inland NSW and most of VIC and TAS. WA also picking up on rainfall, however the focus may shift a little further east during the second week of the outlook. But something to watch there, as that trend is not set in stone.
18Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 weeks.
Significant frontal weather headlines the weather pattern for the coming 2 weeks, so too does the moisture coming through the tropical north and swinging into the jet stream and bringing moisture into frontal weather, enhancing rainfall potential for the next 14-16 days. We will have to break down each front and low pressure trough as they come through, but it is looking like a lot of rainfall potential exists for southern parts of the nation and the Ag areas of SA, VIC and NSW. Winter rainfall from a traditional winter pattern.
18Z GFS - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 2 weeks.
Again the signficant moisture intrusion from the northwest into the southeast continues to be a fair solution during the coming 2 weeks, there looks to be 3 attempts for this to take place, but frontal weather is slightly out of phase with that moisture. However the westerly wind belt is also carrying moisture from further upstream where moisture has been drawn in over the Central Indian Ocean as they surge eastwards. There is plenty of support for the rainfall to continue for the coming few weeks as per the 2 week and 4 week outlook I posted earlier this week. That idea seems to be the front running idea.
18Z GFS - Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 weeks.
Rainfall also following the medium to long term modelling with the totals now increasing in the short term forecast packages for WA, SA, VIC, NSW and TAS. The drier weather continues to look like a fair solution for the north and east with the upper high and ridging over the region continuing to keep temperatures elevated. This is the peak of the dry season over the north and the driest time of the year for QLD as we edge closer to the fire danger periods of August. However with moisture returning through the jet stream, it does not mean that rainfall chances are 0% for the inland of QLD or the NT, they are not as high at this time, but it takes one system to change that.
Model Spread for the past 24hrs on next week's moisture. This forecast will be updated later this evening after 9pm
Rainfall output from all the modelling during the last 24hrs for next week. This forecast will be updated after 9pm this evening.
More short term forecasts to come this afternoon after 4pm for the week ahead.