A QUICK LOOK AT THE MOISTURE IN THE MEDIUM TERM.

Very quick update on the moisture filtering through next week behind this week's wintry wet weather.


Evening model spread for moisture moving from WA through to the east next week. Much better clustering of the models tonight with rainfall returning next week. Let's see if it holds.

06Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall for the next 16 days.

Can clearly see the wild and windy wintry weather this week with the potential for severe weather across multiple states. Next week we can see another low and front coming through WA, again signals for a further band of rainfall to spread across SA and into VIC and NSW in around 10 days time. The consistency on this idea is improving, so for those wanting more rainfall, still a good chance.

06Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values for the next 16 days.

Clearly no real change in the PW values this week, next week they return with elevated values from the northwest following that brief cold dry surge. The evening run of the GFS has even more moisture to work with so that is encouraging, and the rainfall for southern parts of WA, SA, VIC and into NSW looking reasonable this far out so plenty of time to refine this feature, how much moisture gets involved and the eventual output.

06Z GFS - Rainfall for the next 16 days.

Rainfall largely unchanged for inland areas in the evening run but getting a lot of red on the board which equates to over 50mm for coastal areas, 100mm+ for those exposed to a westerly. Up to 200mm in western Tasmania. Not much along the east coast which is climatologically correct for this time of year.

I will have more from 6am EST. Another busy day on the way.

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