The model madness continues and if you are living over the in the east and north, the weather is changing from run to run still, as expected, with the tropical weather causing havoc on downstream impacts on rainfall for southeast and eastern Australia. So confidence in the medium term is very poor for now.

The short term we have the heatwave building over in the west and that may extend into SA this week. Meanwhile in the east there is a significant chance of rain and thunderstorms building from mid to late week triggering heavy falls.

Along the NSW coast, a decent chance of a deepening trough embedded with the easterly flow will help to promote heavy rainfall risks from Gippsland in Victoria through to Newcastle and adjacent inland areas. The heavy falls very hard to pin down but there is the decent chance of heavy rainfall in this zone. I will have more on that later.

Finally the tropical north is looking very unstable with showers and storms, some severe with damaging winds and heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding. The risk of cyclonic activity in the medium term also being proposed as well across northern Australia. More on that as well later today.

For now I leave you with the data sets from this morning

Euro 12z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 Days

Quiet on the home front for the west and south, with rain and thunderstorms increasing elsewhere in the east and over the north and eventually for the western and central interior as the monsoonal moisture begins to move further south. The nation is looking warmer away from the east where the onshore winds continue with more cloud and rainfall.

Euro 12z - Precipitable Water Values - Next 10 Days

No real change from last nights update, I will have more this afternoon but the coverage of tropical weather over northern Australia is expected to increase and spread south and east through the period.

Euro 12z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 15 Days

The below data sets are all from Euro. You can see the variations in within the same model which is expressing more uncertainty as we move through the outlook period. I will be focussing more energy in the shorter term forecasting this week due to the uncertainty but also highlighting issues into the medium and longer term at least once a day.

Euro 12z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Note that rainfall over eastern Victoria, this will move around in the coming days.

Euro 12z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 15 Days

The broader data set offers a wet run into Christmas over the east and over the northern areas of the nation that monsoonal activity will drive the rainfall nationally from the week into Christmas through to New Years.

I will have a Summer Update shortly

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