But yes, pockets have missed out through the Riverlands, Murraylands and along the east coast (certainly don't need much at the moment there). But generally the food bowl of Australia doing well during the first month of winter.
Rainfall month to date - Percentage of mean - Valid Thursday June 24th 2021.
Pockets of excellent rainfall over the food bowl in the east has delivered quite handsome winter rainfall, in a month that can be notoriously dry with stubborn high pressure. Note some parts of the outback of Australia have received rainfall, there are just no observations to accurately measure this, but note the rain did not just stop over the Pilbara.
Measuring this against the June Rainfall Outlook I posted in May, it has verified fairly well rainfall does come back to WA this weekend and next week so that should get some locations towards average, if not above average along the west coast.
June Rainfall Outlook - Posted Tuesday May 18th 2021.
Pockets of the west have been wet but not that west coast....yet, but it may change over the last 5 days. (more on that in the WA blog folder).
Rainfall likely to conclude through this region by Friday afternoon for the month.
Many areas now well and truly above the June rainfall through inland NSW, southwest QLD and eastern VIC where major storms have moved through during the month. But the rainfall will return to WA, that pattern flip helping to cement some further moderate to heavy falls for the west coast.
Rainfall for the coming 10 days - most to fall within the June window.
The synoptic scale supports that pattern flip, some welcome rainfall over SEQ may assist in easing the deficits there over the weekend, but it will not be enough to bring them up to average. That again not uncommon in these types of climatic setups and a dominant and northward push of the westerly wind belt.
Areas that have missed out have been at the mercy of systems reorganising or placement. It is bad luck, nothing else, not even radars doing some magical things I can assure you of that.
A great example of when a system begins to shift, meaning somewhere always misses out. The front was primed and moving eastwards with a sizeable and in tact rainband. The low was also part of the broad synoptic flow meaning that the rain was moderate to heavy along the entire length of the cloud band as it rolled into SA.
Tuesday 22nd of June 2021.
But the front began to be driven south by a strong upper high over the Tasman, forcing the low to become slow moving, the trough over the inland to branch off from the low and advance east and decouple, the moisture became detached from the northwest and the rainfall therefore declined for a period over eastern SA.
An earlier look at this system showed a much broader approach to the low meaning that if this verified then the rainfall over southeast SA would have been more plentiful, but unfortunately the former verified and the rainfall reignited as the trough encountered better moisture profiles in NSW and QLD.
The weather will turn wetter as we go through July and then into Spring too. This is good news for those who have missed out, it is one system of many. There are no signals of a dry look to winter, spring or summer just yet. So do not despair. No sign of El Nino either.
It may be presumptuous at this time, but with the current rainfall anomalies being observed after a wet summer, the soil moisture is elevated over wide areas, flooding may become a concern during the spring.
In 2016, the negative IOD brought well and truly above average rainfall during the winter and spring and the Newell was cut in many locations. Don't just look to La Nina to produce rainfall. That is the lesson here.
Latest IOD forecast - Showing a prolonged period of negative values leading into summer. This is a sign that rainfall anomalies will be higher than average for many areas of the south and east.
The July Rainfall Outlook - Valid Tuesday 22nd of June 2021.
Seasonal Outlook - July through September 2021. Valid Wednesday June 16th 2021
So the wet weather will be increasing under current guidance, on paper that looks fair but sometimes it is a different story in reality as per last year, but we can have years like 2016 when it all comes together, and statistically we are due.
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