There is a lot of weather on the horizon so let's have another look at it this morning and the parameters to watch in greater detail and head of the broader update from 5pm EST on your state-based forecasts with updated rainfall and severe weather analysis.



August 3rd-17th 2022

Moisture Watch

Deep moisture can be seen offshore WA. This moisture will take the best part of this week to traverse the country via strong cold fronts and low-pressure systems and from this time next week into the following week, we should see that moving into the eastern inland with moderate to locally heavy rainfall associated with the frontal weather and moisture moving through. Another burst of moisture running into the jet stream and into frontal weather sweeping southern Australia will likely have higher impacts over the SWLD with heavy rainfall potential there. Additional rainfall is likely to sweep through the remainder of Ag Australia through this period with the moderate to heavy burst of rainfall gradually moving offshore the eastern portions of Australia.

Moisture will be running via various ports through the nation, but the coverage is at a broad scale now, and it is uncertain where the highest impacts will be experienced regarding rainfall. But elevated temperatures are likely to feature over the north and northeast with increasing heat levels. The moisture out of the Indian Ocean may feed inland instability leading to rain and storms building. The frontal wave train will carry modest moisture values and could interact with another wave of moisture coming from the Central Indian Ocean leading to widespread falls developing across the nation's south. Whether this results in widespread above average rainfall remains to be seen given it is 2-3 weeks out.

Rainfall Anomalies

Rainfall anomalies are expected to be above the norm in the coming week for many areas with that major system clearing eastwards offshore the QLD and NSW region early in the period. Humidity and unsettled weather may lag back over the NT and pockets of inland WA, and this may be drawn southwards into the fast flow pattern continuing to bring windy showery weather for Southern Australia. Stronger fronts approaching the west may once again be accompanied by larger moisture plumes moving through the Indian Ocean.

Rainfall anomalies are driven by the moisture that lingers throughout the interior and whether that can be drawn back southwards into the fast flow pattern over Southern Australia. Frontal weather offering at least a decent chance of seasonal rainfall for this period over southern Australia. Weaker signals for rainfall being above average over northern Australia but you will notice the humidity values are likely to be on the rise as the upper-level winds and the surface level winds start to bring moisture in from the northeast and north.

Temperature Anomalies

A warmup well above the average is forecast to continue throughout the coming week and that will persist through next week with a northwest to westerly flow helping to transport that warmer air into the eastern and southeastern inland. The cooler bias over the SWLD of WA is thanks to being on the western flank of large low-pressure systems moving through the Bight and a southwesterly flow featuring. The cooler air may drift into the southern coastal areas at times.

Temperatures are forecast to continue at above average values for large areas of northern Australia with a northwesterly flow aloft dragging that warmer air into the eastern inland. Rainfall and cloud coverage over the southern and southeast inland will suppress the full warmth being realised but seasonal weather with the wet weather is expected over the south. Cooler bias remains in the west with the southwesterly flow continuing to feature here with additional rainfall.

More to come in your state based forecasts this evening.