I just wanted to post the mechanics surrounding the first system that COULD bring some widespread rainfall through northern and northeastern parts of the country and whether this can bring about a large cloud band that may extend further south.

But will a cold blast and showery burst of weather over the southeast and southern parts of the nation disrupt the formation of the upper low/trough across northern Australia and then whip it through QLD and NSW later next week clearing conditions quicker, or does it all fold in together to produce widespread above average rainfall and severe weather potential?

We will continue to see the models running from one extreme to the other for the days ahead as we see the systems emerge in real time, and this is when real time data from the upper air network is then fed back into the models, and we SHOULD see better consistency from Sunday into early next week.

So, hold on!

Below are the differences between models for Tuesday next week.

EURO - Upper Air Pattern - 18000ft

GFS - Upper Air Pattern - 18000ft

ICON - Upper Air Pattern - 18000ft

CMC- Upper Air Pattern - 18000ft

So, as you can see 3/4 agencies see the pattern the same next week, it is from that point they diverge hence the different rainfall outputs!

I will have more in the broader update this evening.