A LOOK AT THE RAINFALL WITH THE BROADER MODELLING

The deterministic modelling that I showed you earlier this evening is showing drier weather (if you believe them) for parts of southern Australia in the short and medium term, while keeping the same areas wet, particularly the west and the east, which is now extending to portions of the inland.


But looking at the broader data sets this evening, that may not be the case, with moisture escaping through a weakness in ridging over southern Australia, thus introducing moisture and low pressure together to share the rainfall chances around.


So plenty to watch beyond the last of the severe weather in the east and the frontal weather this weekend over the south.


Lets take a look


00z Euro - Rainfall Next 2 Weeks - HIGH CHANCE

The Euro still is the most aggressive on rainfall spreading across the nation with a deep moisture source sitting through the interior and running through the jet stream leading to widespread rainfall chances coming up next week and again in the medium term. Some of the members do have this moisture coming further south into SA and VIC, while a handful keeps the moisture further north and over northeast areas of the country, especially through QLD. The overall trend is looking wetter than normal for many areas of the interior which is line with the climate guidance here from January. It is just bad luck for SA thus far, but with the rainfall and moisture levels being elevated around the nation with elevated SSTs, it is only a matter of time that the weather turns wetter across these areas and persists nationally.

00z GFS - Rainfall Next 2 Weeks - LOW CHANCE

The latest data shows that the rainfall over the east is forecast to ease but further rainfall is possible in the medium term once again. The west looking more unsettled than the east for once with more moisture and instability feeding through WA and some of this could creep into SA as well. But it is all conditional. The GFS is the driest model out of the three which is rare, but it has been the most inconsistent thus far on all the runs this week.

00z CMC - Rainfall Next 2 Weeks - MODERATE CHANCE

The latest CMC is more aligned with the Euro solution and I am tending to agree with that with the moisture over the nation‘s north and west playing out with more chances of rainfall sweeping through the jet stream and into weather systems contracting from west to east. So the rainfall chances are likely to increase over the nation as a whole as we move through from next weekend and towards the end of tghe month. This could also introduce rainfall into SA and VIC which have seen far less than other areas around the nation.

A reminder to you all that I am travelling from 5am CST to get back to Canberra by 2pm EST so the next video will be tomorrow afternoon and more details on the Climate will be attached to that.



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