A LOOK AT THE MEDIUM TERM TO FINISH THE MONTH.

Plenty of eyes on the developing weather situation in the short term but lets look at the mechanics in place for the medium term ahead of the weather video this afternoon and the rainfall and modelling outlook later this evening.


FORECAST

MEDIUM TERM OUTLOOK

July 25th-August 2nd, 2022

Moisture Watch Next Week

Moisture spreading through the jet stream over the west of the nation will continue to be shunted south and southeast where the rainfall bearing systems linking into the moisture will be found. Onshore winds on the east coast and moisture offshore QLD could lead to some showers and cloudy weather. Severe weather low at this time. The rest of the nation in relatively seasonal airmass with high pressure keeping things dry and deflecting the rainfall bearing systems away for now.

Rainfall Anomalies

A drier bias continues for the southern parts of the nation for now with the current guidance supporting the westerly wind belt being placed further south leading to less rainfall spreading these areas. The east coast may be dealing with further onshore winds and showers with Tasman Low pressure possible. The SWLD of the nation will see stronger cold fronts approaching. Showers and humid air over Cape York and PNG will keep the rainfall totals above normal thanks to warmer than normal SSTs.

Temperature Anomalies Next Week

The cooler southwesterly flow will bring the temperatures back down after a nice warm up over the southeast and eastern inland as we track through this week. The heat engine is looking like it is starting to warm up though through the coming 2 weeks and beyond. If that continues, then the rainfall over northern and central inland parts of the nation may start to pick up in the period into August.

DATA

18Z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

The pressure pattern has been discussed at length in the multitude of posts this morning on the website for the weather systems of note in the short term. In the medium term, the forecast is supportive of further low pressure forming on the flank of westerly winds which are being projected further south of the nation than what we should see at this time of year, which could lead to further blocking weather patterns into the end of the month and start of August. That is an idea on the table and not carrying a high confidence.

18z GFS Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 16 Days

Noting the anomalous moisture content continues in areas of eastern and northeast areas of the nation and deep moisture coming out of the Indian Ocean is feeding the weakening cold fronts over the course of the next 2 weeks sweeping through the SWLD of WA. The north remains in seasonal weather throughout but finally, we are starting to see the drier air becoming eroded as we move into August.

18z GFS Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 days

The rainfall spread not overwhelming for the nation's south, but I will mention that when we are in the heights of drought, there is no rainfall forecast for southeast and southern areas on these charts. The GFS does show some moisture coming through the central parts of the NT and feeding into NSW in the longer range which the deterministic data does not show. The forecast confidence is poor Clearly the wettest weather is over the southwest and northeast of the nation and along the east coast.

12z CMC Rainfall Accumulation - Next 15 days

The rainfall spread not overwhelming for the nation's south, but I will mention that when we are in the heights of drought, there is no rainfall forecast for southeast and southern areas on these charts. Clearly the wettest weather is over the southwest and northeast of the nation and along the east coast.

12z Euro Rainfall Accumulation - Next 15 days

The rainfall spread not overwhelming for the nation's south, but I will mention that when we are in the heights of drought, there is no rainfall forecast for southeast and southern areas on these charts. I will mention that there are some members from the Euro that bring more rainfall than what is shown here over the south and southeast. Clearly the wettest weather is over the southwest and northeast of the nation and along the east coast.

More coming up in the state based forecasts later on.