A LOOK AT THE MEDIUM TERM MOISTURE.

I will make this brief as I will have a larger outlook tomorrow for the medium term once again.


But there are some significant moisture profiles being expressed on modelling in the medium term.


Precipitable Water - Next 2 weeks.

The humidity values are expected to decrease this week as a surge moves north from the southern states, flushing the humidity out to the north of the nation. This will likely be the last strong surge of southerly dry air for a while. Then we see the nation progressively become more humid as we go through the coming 10 days. The weather largely benign for many locations away from the SWLD. But this is where we watch the north very closely with the humidity picking up from this weekend and increasing through next week and deepening further into mid month. This will be the breeding ground for those in the eastern and southern states, for further rainfall opportunity. There will be moisture also filtering through from WA but the westerly wind belt looks to be further south (as expected) next week and the frontal boundaries not quite making it through SA and the southeast states as previous weeks. While we won't see extensive rainfall for the eastern states via WA, that opens the door for further rainfall to develop from northern and northwest parts of the nation given the values building throughout inland Australia.

Tuesday 17th of August - 2 weeks from today.

Lets see where we stand in 2 weeks time. There is potential for a warmer and more humid nation by then with rainfall events likely developing in the forecasts packages for the end of the month. Until then we will be much quieter. That does not mean that the month will end up drier than normal. All it takes is one system to link into the deep moisture profile and for many areas, a month's worth of rainfall can be observed in a single event. So we watch to see trends in the coming days.

Precipitable Water Anomalies- Next 2 weeks.

This product does paint a picture of what is expected to develop during the coming two weeks, drier air being replaced gradually with more moisture. That is thanks to the lack of southerly surges through southern Australia allowing moisture to pool over the continent.

More on this tomorrow. But some interesting signals remain in the medium term.

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