A LOOK AT POTENTIAL FOLLOW UP RAINFALL AND BEYOND THROUGH MID AUGUST.

Lots of interest in the system working through the central and southern parts of the nation next week which may bring the chance of further follow up rainfall chances to many locations which have been craving rainfall (which is hammering the east today).


Moisture is expected to spread throughout northern Australia during the weekend and move into northwest WA by the early part of next week.


A strong cold front is forecast to move into the SWLD of WA bringing the chance of moderate rainfall from Sunday night and Monday with a colder shift.


The combination of that colder air moving northwards into the warm moist air descending from the north will likely lead to the development of low pressure throughout southern Australia. The proximity of that low pressure system to the mainland remains key to rainfall distribution - I keep mentioning you can only be more specific once we lose the current large-scale system to the east of the country.


So forecast confidence will improve from MODERATE to HIGH during Sunday into early next week.


WEATHER VIDEO - MEDIUM TERM FORECAST - AUGUST 4TH 2022

FORECAST CHARTS

August 11th-18th 2022

Moisture Watch

Moisture is expected to sweep through the southeast inland with the broad low passing through the southeast inland of the nation. There will be moisture running north through the northern tropics, but a dry southeasterly surge may win out mid to late next week before we see winds shift into the northeast again dragging in elevated values. Moisture spreading through the Indian Ocean could spread south and southeast into the western parts of the nation ahead of another strong cold front leading to widespread rainfall chances returning to WA which keeps the filling season going.

Rainfall Anomalies

Rainfall anomalies remain elevated in the east and that is a placement mark for the potential for a return of a low into the region and then deepening offshore leading to southeasterly winds and showers for the east coast and inland rainfall transitioning through SA and NSW as well as VIC, possibly southern QLD, this area of wet weather moving eastwards. Rainfall out west also starting to increase as we see frontal weather increasing in strength from mid-month and tapping into the moisture surging southwards into the frontal weather passing through.

Temperature Anomalies

Temperatures are heavily dependent upon the evolution of the low pressure passing out of SA into the southeast inland of the nation during the latter part of next week into the following weekend and then popping offshore the east coast. The near record values over the Top End and northwest Kimberly continue but the airmass drier as southeasterly winds return for a period. Seasonal conditions generally out west overall, with the fluctuation in temperatures throughout the period thanks to the frontal weather passing through the westerly wind belt.

More coming up in your state-based forecasts this evening.