Conditions are beginning to east today with a front and cold pool finally on the way to the east after a blustery and wet 24hrs throughout the SWLD. A ridge is set to move in tomorrow from the west, racing in to clear skies over the inland areas, but with a northwest flow continuing, showers will continue for the west coast, more isolated inland and over the southern coast.
But more rainfall is on the way on Friday.
Lets look at the remainder of today to find where things are moving.
Wednesday Analysis - Valid Wednesday 10am July 7th 2021.
A cold and vigorous southwest to westerly wind regime over the southwest of the state will contract further east and southeast with a front sliding southeast through the Bight. The front will bring showers to the central and eastern coast before moving south of the Nullabor tonight. Conditions will ease over the southwest tonight and for Thursday.
But there is more wild weather on the way for the west coast.
The next front does bring some heavier rainfall totals on Friday with a new wave passing through during the afternoon and evening.
Euro 18z run - Rainfall for the next 4 days - Valid Wednesday 7th of July 2021.
A brief break between fronts Thursday but note another 20-50mm likely to sweep in from the west with another front during Friday afternoon.
GFS 18z run - Precipitable Water Values next 16 days - Valid Wednesday 7th of July 2021.
Moisture content remains high over the coming 10 days before a drier tongue of air descends under high pressure. The next wave of low pressure and frontal weather in the medium term has the potential to bring widespread rainfall once again with another cloud band with involvement from the Indian Ocean.
GFS 18z run - Upper flow pattern next 16 days - Valid Wednesday 7th of July 2021.
Another 2 major frontal passages are expected over the coming 5 days with the long wave trough then lifting out to the eastern states mid next week. High pressure comes in for about 2 days then another major frontal passage moves through the region. This zonal pattern very traditional for this time of year and will continue to bring above average rainfall chances. The wild card being the Indian Ocean and if deeper moisture can be injected into the frontal weather in the medium term.
GFS 18z run - Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Wednesday 7th of July 2021.
Rainfall looks handsome for the southwest still over the coming 10 days. An additional 50-100mm possible with isolated pockets closer to 150mm. There is more rainfall beyond the 10 day scope.
GFS Ensemble 18z run - Rainfall next 16 days - Valid Wednesday 7th of July 2021.
Note the ensembles are also wet, with most members pinging more rainfall into the middle of the month with further cloud bands and frontal weather. So the breaks will brief between rainfall events.
Putting that all together, it is looking wet for the coming 10 days.
Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Wednesday 7th of July 2021
Rainfall remains above average for the west and south coasts for the coming 7 days before an easing trend. Rainfall over the inland may begin to increase in the coming days with better guidance on the moisture coming from the Indian Ocean.
No severe weather risks on Thursday with a break for the region, but charts will be issued for severe weather come Thursday for Friday, including thunderstorm charts, damaging winds, hail risk and farmers and graziers forecasts.