A very cold start this morning with areas of severe frost and fog patches thick at times over the ranges. Conditions have been cold enough for a freeze in some locations through the early morning.
We have thickening high cloud out west and rain starting to approach western communities this morning.
The low will bring the rain into the western half of the state tonight, followed by a cold day of light rain on Friday before frontal weather brings showery windy and cold weather throughout large parts of southern and central NSW.
There is more active weather next week too, plenty to talk about so lets take a look.
Note that after the cold start we will have thickening high cloud coming in from SA, so the day will be getting gradually more overcast with the east seeing a good supply of sunshine before the cirrus arrives this afternoon. Rain developing through western areas, particularly the Lower Western, where moderate rainfall totals in the range of 10-20mm is possible in the coming 24hrs.
Areas of rain with some moderate falls over central SA is moving east and rainfall will start to move into the western inland of NSW this afternoon and persist tonight and extend further east during Friday.
Timing on rainfall - this was yesterday and should hold fairly well. Rain ends at 4pm in a line from Moomba to Clare to Adelaide today. Should begin in the area between Bourke west of Hay by 2-3pm etc.
12Z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 16 days
The surface pressure pattern for the coming week to two weeks is largely unchanged with the westerly wind regime continuing to dominate the south of the nation, that means more of the same weather on the way. The high pressure ridge over central parts of the nation may start to dig into the westerly belts at times, like what we have seen in recent days, but the westerly belt looks to win out. Some stronger fronts in the sequence offer the better chances of rainfall for the state, but the bulk of the rainfall after today and tomorrow will be over southern inland areas and mountain country.
12z GFS Rainfall for the coming 10 days
You can see that westerly wind belt dominance is reflected in the rainfall spread. There could be a dry day here and there state wide early next week. But the fronts are now expected to continue rolling through to our south and west for the coming 10 days. Inland areas up to the QLD border and along the east coast, mostly dry beyond the low pressure system Friday.
12z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days
No real change from last night's guidance with the low coming through Friday with areas of rain state wide, but the coast mostly dry for now. Then we have frontal weather that should bring an increase of rainfall and cold winds for southern areas of the state and snowfalls to lower levels. More fronts next week keeps the rainfall spread the same but we could see a larger cloud band approach at the end of next week.
12z Euro Rainfall for the coming 10 days
Rainfall looking fairly decent for the week ahead over the southern inland and with the low pressure system coming through over the course of the next 24 hours, there may be some slightly heavier falls than previously modelled for the southern inland and along the GDR as the system washes through. PW values are a little more robust now in this sequence, but again will come down to the track of the low and the speed of the system over the coming 24hrs. Otherwise there are fronts galore from Saturday for southern areas.
Rainfall for the next 2 days
I drew this up yesterday and it should hold fairly well for the coming 24hrs. Your number will vary between 5-15mm over inland areas and there will be pockets that do a little better than that in random locations. As we have seen in SA, numbers have varied, but most areas have seen about 5mm so far.
Rainfall for the next 10 days
The rainfall is largely unchanged again for the state as the pattern is fairly stubborn and therefore it is a persistence forecast. Some heavier rainfall and more widespread rainfall is possible later next week with a cloud band ahead of the next wave.
Simulated Satellite Imagery - Next Friday
This will be watched over the coming few days to see whether we can buy some more inland rainfall heading into August.
More details to come today including a 2 week outlook and more analysis on the rainfall coming through in the next few days and the wintry blast.