A FEW RAIN EVENTS NOW ON THE BOARD FOR THE COMING 2 WEEKS.

The spring rainfall regime is picking up pace and the frequency of inland rainfall as expected is increasing, in line with the climate guidance. That is no surprise to me and it should not be to many following.


Now it comes down to following exactly who gets what which is a challenge as spring time is the hardest time of year to forecast.


Lets take a look at the full model suite tonight.


SHORT TERM

All models initiate the rainfall over central parts of the nation with variations on how much moisture gets pulled east through the upper level westerly winds with the cold front over the southeast. Some models push the front through fast. Other models keep the moisture over the inland of QLD and keep the rain going, others do not. There is a lot of conjecture in the short term. The highest confidence portion of the forecast is the SWLD of the nation as we see moderate showery weather on Monday. If you are living over the southeast and eastern inland of the nation, your number will vary greatly.


UKMET - Rainfall Next 7 Days - LOW CHANCE

This has shifted the complex of rainfall from central Australia into the eastern inland much quicker than previous runs, moving the rain from west to east over the weekend and offshore by Monday. Not much rainfall expected for the southeast of the nation which I do not buy and lighter falls for SWLD.

MEDIUM TERM

Once the system over the inland of the nation moves east and then offshore the east coast, moisture is anticipated to linger back over inland QLD through to the NT and tropics. Over the south the weather should clear quite efficiently with a southwest to southeasterly flow under the trough with high pressure close by. The front from WA then moves across into the southeast this time next week and offers the next round of rain and storms, some are robust with the severe weather risks for the east coast. And some models are less excited on the idea. But this offers the best chance of rainfall for Ag areas of the nation. The tropics turn active next week into the following weekend and the weather dries out over the SWLD and western interior under a high pressure zone.


Each model offers a different solution regarding the first and second system so refer to the ratings next to the model to understand where my forecasts are going and where they are leaning.


ICON - Rainfall Next 8 Days - LOW CHANCE

CMC - Rainfall Next 10 Days - LOW CHANCE

EURO - Rainfall Next 10 Days - MODERATE CHANCE

ACCESS - Rainfall Next 10 Days - LOW CHANCE

KMA - Rainfall Next 12 Days - MODERATE CHANCE

GFS - Rainfall Next 16 Days - LOW CHANCE

ENSEMBLE DATA

The ensemble data which people overlook often is much more reliable and you can see the same theme exists, rainfall bias over the eastern and northern parts of the nation as well as running through southern coastal areas. Some of the falls heavy at times in the east and north. Most agencies have 2-3 events in the next 15 days, mainly over central and eastern areas.


GFS - Rainfall Next 16 Days (median of 35 members) - MODERATE CHANCE

CMC - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 30 members) HIGH CHANCE

EURO - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 51 members) - MODERATE CHANCE

LONG TERM

The rainfall bias still heavy in the east and graduates lighter the further west you go through the nation, and that is a fair assessment given the current climate structure, the SSTs and the recent upper air pattern supporting the moisture pooling over northern and eastern parts of the nation. The west likely to turn drier.


CFS - Rainfall Next 6 Weeks - MODERATE CHANCE

The models in the short term will struggle with specifics, especially with the complex pressure pattern as we have unfolding this weekend. So stay close to forecasts and trends rather than the deterministic data, weather weeny pages and your apps that will again lead you down a garden path.