A FEW RAIN BEARING SYSTEMS ON THE BOARD FOR MOST OF THE NATION.

We are looking at an active phase as expected for the second half of the month, perhaps some other areas away from the east, where the rainfall bias is running high, could also pick up some falls too. The tropics, already ahead of schedule, that is going to also increase rainfall chances for inland areas near troughs that are expected to develop.


I will have more on this tomorrow, but the heat possibly coming down from northwest to southeast over the eastern inland could be the final nail in the cooler season until April next year.


Lets take a look


SHORT TERM

The rainfall over the east and northeast of the nation will move on by during Tuesday and clear the coast tomorrow night. Showery weather over the southwest heralds the start of the next system that will bring strong to severe storms in the east and see a low pressure system form bringing gales and showery weather for SA, VIC and TAS. Impact to crops across the southeast is MODERATE for the low pressure system. Heavy rainfall and large hail with thunderstorms also posing a threat during Wednesday and Thursday over NSW and VIC. A good portion of the central and western interior likely dry through the period now as high pressure ridges in. The tropics active, especially the NT.


UKMET - Rainfall Next 7 Days - MODERATE CHANCE.

MEDIUM TERM

The low pressure system that forms over the latter part of this week over the southeast will clear off during the weekend. But some models keep a trough in place over inland QLD that taps into moisture early next week with rain increasing again. Other models also keen to bring in heavy rain into the SWLD of WA with a strong cold front and low. Other models do not see this and keep it calm. You can see the variations on the modelling which expresses the uncertainty in the medium term still. The higher probability forecast is for the tropics, showers and thunderstorms continuing.


ICON - Rainfall Next 8 Days - LOW CHANCE

CMC - Rainfall Next 10 Days - MODERATE CHANCE

EURO - Rainfall Next 10 Days - HIGH CHANCE

ACCESS - Rainfall Next 10 Days - MODERATE CHANCE

KMA - Rainfall Next 12 Days - MODERATE CHANCE

GFS - Rainfall Next 16 Days - LOW CHANCE

ENSEMBLE DATA

The ensemble data is the better way of looking at this outlook period, again the bias of rainfall through the coming 2 weeks is over the east and southeast however numbers have been coming up for the SWLD of WA and over the NT with more moisture. The numbers of SA are mixed with the Ag areas expected to do well this week, but some very warm weather and dry air returns next week so fingers crossed for these falls, as no rain will result in crops being clobbered next week.


GFS - Rainfall Next 16 Days (median of 35 members) - MODERATE CHANCE

CMC - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 30 members) - HIGH CHANCE

EURO - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 51 members) - MODERATE CHANCE

LONG TERM

The wet signal continues for the coming 6 weeks over the east and extends to a fair chunk of the nation. Above average rainfall looks a good chance of many areas during this period, taking us deep into harvest. I will have more on this tomorrow.


CFS - Rainfall Next 6 Weeks - MODERATE CHANCE

More details from 7am EDT.



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