After a cold front moved through this morning, the showers have eased and contracted to the southern coastal areas. High pressure is knocking on the door and likely to stay with the region for much of the working week into the early part of the weekend.
Then we are staring at a barrage of frontal weather as we track through Sunday and into next week, with a broad long wave trough rolling through the southwest of the nation and becoming slow moving, protracting rainfall chances.
Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Tuesday 29th of June 2021.
Rainfall to become widespread and potentially heavy at times with regular cold fronts rolling through Sunday, next Tuesday, Wednesday and then in 7-10 days time, with an active westerly wind belt. Putting that all together these falls are a reasonable estimation of what you could see, but any added moisture coming through from the northwest of the nation could increase the falls over inland areas and coastal parts too.
Pinning down moisture from the Indian Ocean has been very difficult (discussed here today) but there is lots to work with that is sitting in the northern basin. Tonight's model runs are mixed with regards to whether it can be drawn southeast through the nation and into the fast flow wavy pattern.
The fast flow pattern over the Southern Indian Ocean and the moisture plume over the Northern Indian Ocean, can the two belts meet in the coming days to produce a massive cloud band?
Euro 12z run - Simulated Water Vapour Satellite - Valid Tuesday 29th of June 2021.
Euro 00z run - Simulated Water Vapour Satellite - Valid Tuesday 29th of June 2021.
A closer look tonight at the same product for WA, you can see that some connection of the moisture into the westerly wind belt is likely next week with the potential for more widespread rainfall possible out west and then heading east through mid to late next week. Will be monitoring this in the medium term and carries a moderate chance of occurring despite model madness.
The synoptic scale also illustrates that movement of the high to the east during the weekend, opening the door for that long wave trough to move towards the west coast by Sunday. That will bring the next wave of rainfall and strong winds Sunday. How much moisture can it bring into the region will become clearer by Friday as we get a better handle on the weather and blocking potential over the Tasman Sea in the east.
Euro 00z run - Surface Pressure Pattern and rainfall distribution for the coming 10 days - Valid Tuesday 29th of June 2021.
I am really interested in the weather moving out of the Indian Ocean over the weekend and into next week as it could be some of the wettest and windy weather the southwest and west has seen so far this winter and the longest spell of westerly winds for the southwest so far this year.
It has potential.
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