Rainfall has taken a break from the WA region, with high pressure for the most part over the past week, taking control of the weather. We had a weak frontal passage move through the southern parts of the state today with very light falls with a lot of the moisture and rainfall staying offshore.

National Satellite - Valid 2pm WST May 12th 2021.

Precipitable water values have actually not been too bad through the region, but a very dry airmass at the surface and lack of trigger with this frontal passage saw little rainfall observed across the region, despite the cloud cover.

Next 2 weeks of moisture content through the atmosphere showing a return to drier conditions next week with easterly winds developing. A lot of moisture and precipitable water is sitting over the Indian Ocean once again, pooling and waiting for the next cold front and trough to come through. There is a major front being picked up in modelling in the week between May 22-25th meaning it will likely be dry and cloudy at times, with temperatures above average until that time.

Precipitable Water Flow pattern for the next 2 weeks - GFS 00z run valid May 12th 2021.

So for the region, rainfall is explicitly coastal and about the SWLD at the end of this period, which takes us to May 22nd 2021. That also means a big bag of nothing for a vast majority of inland areas of Australia through this period meaning it is a simple forecast for the coming few days.

Euro Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid May 12th 2021.

Weather Matters rainfall forecast for the coming 10 days - Valid May 12th 2021.

The temperatures will be the big talking point with a shift to above average values for large parts of WA while the east continues to slowly thaw out after a cold blast this weekend. The slow moving high will dominate most of the nations weather over the coming 7 days before we see cracks starting to appear in the strength of the upper heights, which may bring temperatures down a tad over the west and warmer weather developing further east.

Temperature anomalies for the coming 10 days - Euro 00z model run. Valid May 12th 2021.

Perhaps a cooler and wetter end to the month of May and to kick off June is on the cards with the Southern Annular Mode in a neutral phase back towards month's end and moisture remaining high offshore the west coast ready to be utilised in slack weather conditions over the ocean.

Rainfall anomalies for the coming 6 weeks - Valid May 10th 2021 - Until June 25th 2021.

Need more weather information? Tailored forecasts and analysis? Email me at karllijnders@weathermatters.org

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