A DRIER PICTURE FOR QLD AS RAIN FLIRTS WITH THE SOUTH NEXT WEEK.

After another months worth of rainfall for parts of southern inland QLD, the second time in a week, drying out for a few days with a subtropical ridge setting up it's winter camp over the central parts of the nation including QLD. So this forecast is relatively straight forward.


GFS 00z - Surface pressure pattern and rainfall distribution for the coming 16 days.

After the rain clears the far southeast tonight, we are dry for while with a westerly wind regime, a dry airmass and frontal weather to the south. However we may start to get some rainfall towards the southern border region with NSW mid to late week with a cloud band drifting through to the south. This may wobble 100km north of south of current projections which would then change the forecast drastically for parts of the southern inland of QLD moving forward through later next week.

GFS 00z - Precipitable Water Values for the coming 16 days.

I have mentioned and showed this in recent posts for other regions, but this is an element that will be focused on a lot during the coming weeks, precipitable water values will dictate the rainfall events as low pressure rolls through. There is a lot to work with. For those wanting rainfall, you want to see values of 300% above normal coinciding with troughs and low pressure. This will bring back inland rainfall to other areas that may have missed out. There is a lot in the forecast window.

00Z Euro - Surface Pressure Pattern with rainfall for the coming 10 days - Valid Friday 9th of July 2021.

The Euro is a little softer with the frontal sequence to the south and thus keeps most of QLD dry for the coming week or so, but again this is highly dependent on moisture staying out and the cold fronts being further south with high pressure dominating. I am not leaning towards this solution.

00Z Euro - Rainfall for the coming 10 days - Valid Friday 9th of July 2021.

Rainfall clearing the east coast tonight with a drier picture on the way for most of the state. There may be some residual shower activity over the tropical QLD coast with onshore winds. Patchy rainfall will skirt close to the southern border with NSW mid to late next week as the jet stream carries some moisture through from west to east on the northern periphery of the long wave action to the south.

So putting that together it is looking benign, but better rainfall prospects exist just outside this window and if you look at the other state based forecasts and the national forecast package you can see the national picture focusing on that Indian Ocean moisture.



Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Friday 9th of July 2021.

I am siding with the wetter signal for moisture to come back mid to late next week with patchy falls of up 10mm for the southern border with NSW. Otherwise it should be dry throughout the inland. Rainfall with showers of the tropical coast should be lighter than this week when another 100-200mm fell! Maybe a rogue shower over the NT.

More updates on the weather coming up on Saturday. Have a great Friday night!!!


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