A generally unchanged outlook continues for QLD, with region parked underneath a relatively stable ridge with an upper ridge over the north continuing to dominate the weather for the tropics.
But with clear skies and a burst of cold southerly winds moving through today, we have elevated risks of frost and severe frost at that for many inland areas, which could bring damage to crops.
Frost Risk Forecast for Thursday Morning.
There is a weakening low that will move through the southeast and eastern parts of the nation with the top part of a cloud band bringing light and patchy falls to the extreme south of QLD.
Next week we are back to fine and dry under a ridge, which builds over the state with a return to fine and warm conditions.
Keeping an eye on that moisture out west next week, to see whether some of that can come through later next week.
Lets look at the modelling.
00Z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 16 days
Not much rainfall expected over the coming 2 weeks, with the high pressure likely to dominate for the coming period. There are some fast moving cold fronts expected to roll through the southeast, with the only impact for QLD coming in the form of dry southerly winds and southeasterly surges for the tropics as the ridges move through and transport the drier air northwest. We may see inland moisture increase during the first or second week of August that may offer some hope of a pattern shift.
00z GFS Rainfall for the coming 16 days
Perhaps some light falls for the region this Friday into Saturday but the long dry spell shall roll on for a while yet. There is some evidence into early August that the pattern may break down, note the moisture popping up over the NT. We will see if that holds in coming days.
00z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days
The fast flow pattern to the south helps to keep the ridging in place over QLD. We may see some moisture begin to creep into the southern parts of QLD during Friday as a low moves through NSW but then it is back to fine, and breezy with seasonal temperatures but there could be fluctuations in the day time weather with cold air fighting it out with the warm air to the north, so if you live over southern areas, the weather will be variable. Some signals for moisture to increase out west during the latter part of next week, might hold some hope for rainfall to develop into early August with some luck..
00z Euro Rainfall for the coming 10 days
Light falls for the south on Friday otherwise it is dry for most areas away from the tropical QLD coast.
Rainfall for the coming 10 days
Rainfall is creeping into southern areas of the state Friday ahead of a drier and colder weekend with breezy westerly winds. Then dry weather all of next week, though moisture is pinging in the medium term so hopefully some luck with rainfall returning into early August.
I will have a two week forecast tomorrow and hopefully some better news on rainfall odds for QLD.