Showers have been a little more numerous in coverage today as the moisture has been a fraction deeper and the air a little colder, some falls over 3mm have been observed over inland areas of NSW and VIC today.
A cold front is about to sweep through the southeast on Tuesday with a band of rain then cold showery periods to follow with local hail and thunder.
The main impacts will be felt the greatest over the southeast of SA, through southern and mountain VIC and western TAS. Light to moderate showers will come into southern and central NSW but the falls will be more scattered.
The cold air is the big concern with this feature as it will move through the breadth of the eastern inland, making it as far north as central inland QLD.
18Z GFS- Upper Air Pattern at 18000ft for the coming 3 days.
A sharp upper trough rotating around the long wave over the Tasman will pass over the southeast inland during Tuesday with cold air surging north and northeast. The weather is likely to become dramatically colder under the southerly surge. Then high pressure should ridge in and clear out the trough during Wednesday.
18Z GFS- Surface pressure pattern and precipitation for the coming 3 days.
A sharp trough and cold front will pass trough the southeast during Tuesday increasing the shower coverage throughout the southeast with some moderate falls for the southeast inland and heavier falls for Alpine areas of VIC and southeast NSW. Lighter falls for SA but the best of it will likely fall through southeast coastal districts and over the Adelaide HIlls. The weather moves out during Wednesday but as you can see, more rainfall returns for the YP from Thursday.
18Z GFS-Precipitation for the coming week.
I have run the rainfall out for the week and you can see multiple bursts of moderate rainfall with each feature as it rolls through the southeast. This first feature will bring light falls of 1-8mm throughout inland NSW west of the divide, some areas could see 15mm if you get under the right shower. Little along the northern border with QLD. 5-15mm throughout parts of SA and VIC is fair with heavier falls up to 25mm in the wetter spots. Hail and thunder is also a risk.
18Z GFS- Snowfalls for the coming 3 days.
Snowfalls developing down to about 600m in VIC and 800m in NSW with light flurries away from Alpine areas through the Central and Southern Tablelands possible. The VIC and NSW Alpine areas may see falls up to 15cm with this event possibly 20cm. Then more snow after this on Thursday.
The forecast for this system as follows for the southeast.
Thunderstorm Forecast Tuesday - Valid Monday 19th of July 2021.
Cold air following a cold front will bring the chance of thunderstorms through the southeast of the nation, especially over VIC into southern NSW. Storms likely to be gusty bringing small hail and moderate rainfall. They are unlikely to be severe at this time, but some of the wind gusts could get close to 90km/h. Storms clear later tomorrow as the air warms and stabalises.
90% chance of thunderstorms within 25km of a given point in the pink zones.
Damaging Winds Forecast Tuesday - Valid Monday 19th of July 2021.
Damaging wind gusts of 90km/h are possible with the taller storms through southern NSW but the risk is low. The risk of squalls up to 100km/h with showers and storms is moderate over VIC, but again not everywhere will be impacted and this is a low impact event. The risk eases tomorrow night.
Hail Risk Forecast Tuesday - Valid Monday 19th of July 2021.
Hail with any shower or storm should remain below pea size and moderate accumulation is possible, mainly through southern VIC an southeast SA. One or two cells over NSW may bring hail through the region with again no large hail likely. The air at this time of year does not support that type of weather. The hail risk clears east through the day and clears at night.
Farmers and Grazers Tuesday - Valid Monday 19th of July 2021.
Farmers and Graziers advised of high impact weather developing with a colder gusty showery southwesterly air stream during Tuesday. The worst of the weather developing early and then clearing later. There is the risk of some very cold mornings later this week which may also put stress on stock.
Rainfall for the next 3 days - Valid Monday 19th of July 2021.
Rainfall should be primarily coastal, the best of it through western TAS. But along the divide, there will be some spot falls over 10mm right through to about the Central Tablelands in NSW. Snowfalls are possible around Orange, through Canberra and down into the VIC high country and central ranges. The rainfall clears off during Wednesday but as you can see comes back through SA with that low pressure system from Thursday.
More details coming in the weather packages tonight.