A CLOSER LOOK AT THE MOISTURE IN THE MEDIUM TERM.

Always looking at what is next beyond a short term weather event, I like to prepare my forecast trends early especially when we are facing a wet phase, that way any major rainfall events in a time when flood risks are increasing, it is useful to get a guide on what is on the horizon.


For now the system looks set to bring a drenching to southwest WA and possibly along the west coast, but from there, the models diverge as you can see with no consensus in the period following. That makes forecasting the follow up tricky.


Model Spread - Moisture from the Indian Ocean track and spread.

Model Mean Rainfall for Monday 19th July 2021 to the 25th of July 2021.

Potential Rainfall from the northwest cloud band as a blend of all models. The rainfall scope over the southwest is way stronger. These totals will absolutely 100% change over the coming days, but this is the guide for the period next week.

00z Euro - Precipitable Water Values - Next 10 days - Valid Sunday 11th of July 2021.

Quite aggressive anomalies coming through next week but Euro smashes the moisture south and west of the nation into the Bight, but gives the southwest a good lashing of rainfall again in about 7-8 days time and not much coming eastwards at this stage.

00z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 days - Valid Sunday 11th of July 2021.

Has moisture filtering southeast through WA with some of that perhaps being captured by a front to bring light and patchy rainfall to the southern and southeast states.

00z CMC - Precipitable Water Values - Next 10 days - Valid Sunday 11th of July 2021.

A little more aggressive like Euro on the precipitable water anomalies but moves the moisture more east than south later in the run. Bit slower than Euro.

Will keep watch on the potential follow up rainfall potential this week.

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