A CLOSER LOOK AT MID MONTH.

So much focus clearly on the severe weather in the short term can often stop many from looking to what is next, and that is dangerous in a climate which is favouring further weather events of this scale presently sweeping the nation appearing quite quickly in the medium-term forecasts.


Some of the modelling has been supportive of more rainfall developing through the interior with heavier rainfall sweeping into SA and NSW and VIC mid to late next week, while others give the nation a break.


However, with moisture still rotating through the upper-level wind pattern and supporting the development of further cloud bands, and the uncertainty with the SAM phase, there could be more widespread rainfall developing through the interior as fronts remain in play for southern Australia.


How the system resolves over the southeast and east this weekend. will dictate proceedings next week.


Moisture Watch

It is very challenging to forecast the spread of moisture across the nation as it will be building throughout many areas but the relationship to the low pressure and the moisture remains the hot topic in terms of rainfall production. So, the arrows will appear once the confidence grows, but this forecast is of low confidence.

Rainfall Anomalies

Rainfall anomalies are bouncing around all over the place with the higher chances of above average rainfall to be found in the western and central interior, I have lifted it north of the coast but understand that it will continue to fluctuate as we see the pattern come clearer following this wild week of weather. Tropics certainly likely to see elevated rainfall emerge and it doesn't need to be much at this time of year to see green, but note the anomalies offshore in the island nations north of the nation.

Temperature Anomalies

The heat engine strengthening through the period, may begin to nose southwards but the divergence in the modelling surrounding the moisture and rainfall anomalies is also impacting the temperature anomalies for next week and into mid-month. So that is going to be playing a part in fostering the next wave of rainfall events from mid to late month as that warm moist air clashes with the colder drier air surging through the southern parts of the nation with frontal weather, but I have eased the temperature bias over the southern half of the nation due to uncertainty.

More to come from after 5pm EST.