A BROADER LOOK AT THE MORE STABLE RAINFALL OUTLOOKS OFF THE MODELS.

The deterministic modelling is forecasting some wild rainfall numbers of QLD into NSW and then possibly coming as far south as VIC and into eastern parts of SA this week with a broad and unstable airmass.


A separate cold front and trough over in the west with a large moisture in feed is also expected to produce widespread rainfall as well, but the nature of that event is forecast to be tricky to forecast.


In the medium term there are further rainfall events over the west and northwest of the nation, further moisture is forecast to develop over northern Australia which could be fed across the nation's central and eastern parts.


It is expected we could see a wet end to the month and start to June across the country as this lingering La Nina and the strengthening warmer waters over the northwest and west of the nation begin to have some influence across the country.


So here is the current standing from the modelling this evening and more information to come over the next week.


DATA


00Z Euro - Rainfall Next 2 Weeks - HIGH CHANCE

The rainfall from the Euro is the heaviest out of the three which is unusual, given that the other models are usually more inclined to overstate rainfall, so this has me concerned. The rainfall could lead to excessive flooding over the eastern third of QLD. The rainfall over the southwest and west of the nation are expected to be above normal if this is right, picking up on the impacts from the decaying tropical cyclone sitting in the Central Indian Ocean. The moisture then is propelled across the country via the jet stream and looking at the satellite presentation, this seems to be the likely outcome.

00Z CMC - Rainfall Next 2 Weeks - MODERATE CHANCE

The rainfall totals over the eastern third of the nation from Victoria through to Cape York are well above average with a flood risk. The rainfall over the southwest of the country near to above seasonal if this is right and the rainfall through SA are expected to be near seasonal for this time of year.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Next 2 Weeks - LOW CHANCE

The rainfall totals over the northeast of the nation are excessive and could lead to flooding problems. The rainfall over the southeast moderate to heavy at times. The weather over southern Australia and the southwest of the country are about seasonal for this time of year, but the GFS has been running hot and cold on the rainfall totals across southern Australia and not coping with the moisture content in the Indian Ocean.

00Z CFS - Rainfall Next 6 Weeks - MODERATE CHANCE

The rainfall numbers into the longer term that takes us into the middle of June are ever increasing and so we will watch together how and if that unfolds as displayed below. For the record, last year we had a wet Winter in the east, but the numbers were about half of what is being displayed here in comparison, so the signals from the IOD and the La Nina are still strong. Very unusual.

More coming up on Monday.