A BROADER LOOK AT RAINFALL THROUGH THE SHORT AND MEDIUM TERM.

Once again, I like to use the broader data sets as they are not well liked by social media and by many weather weenies as they don't look as wild and exciting, but often are much better resource when it comes to figuring out a reasonable rainfall outcome in these complex set ups.


Let's take a look at the latest in the short and medium term.


00Z Euro - Rainfall Next 2 Weeks (51 Members) - HIGH CHANCE.

The Euro is closest to the post for the short and medium term going off the current spread of members, there is strong agreement on the rainfall over the east and northeast as well as multiple rain bands entering western parts of the country. It will be the secondary and tertiary rain bands that will make impact on southern and southeast Australia, and they start from later next week.

00Z CMC - Rainfall Next 2 Weeks (30 Members) - MODERATE CHANCE.

The rainfall over the east is extensive in the short term and looks to return once again with a deep trough lifting moisture in the coming days and once again being picked up by another upper disturbance in the medium term. The west unsettled and wet from tomorrow night with another belt of rainfall developing next week as more moisture is fed across the country and then into the southeast.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Next 2 Weeks (35 Members) - LOW CHANCE

The GFS still running as the driest out of the three and it is way too dry compared to what is falling over QLD right now, so this is a very low chance of occurring. The weather over in the west is getting wetter as we go however which is in line with other models.

00Z CFS - Rainfall Next 6 Weeks

I am watching the longer term constantly and the idea of cloud bands and the Indian Ocean making an impact on the nation's rainfall is looking to increase through the June. The east coast, awfully wet and unsettled!

More coming up Wednesday morning with a look at how the severe weather is tracking across the country. And will we see some better rainfall prospects for southern Ag areas of the nation?