Widespread showers overnight through southern parts of VIC have begun to contract eastwards this morning, still have a couple of streams moving through Central and Eastern areas, but these will largely ease during today.
The weather over the north has become dry and partly cloudy with the air stabalising as a high pressure system moves east over NSW during today to then be settled over NSW during Wednesday night.
That will lead to a very cold start to the day Thursday of frost over the eastern half of the state with some severe in the northeast. The weather then turns cloudy early in the day with areas of rainfall developing over the northwest of the state, patchier further south.
The light rain and cloudy skies moves through NSW during Thursday before the showers increase from the west during Friday night with a strong cold front on the approach. This front will bring a big drop in temperature and widespread showers throughout the state. The heaviest of the rainfall will be about the southern and mountain areas.
The weekend looks showery and windy with cold conditions and local hail, thunder and low level snowfalls all still possible under a very cold airmass working through on Saturday. Then another shortwave front on Sunday will reinforce the cold and showery weather before it eases during Monday.
There are more frontal boundaries next week, but we could get away with a fine day on Monday or Tuesday. The next wave of fronts come through from as early as this time next week or shortly there after.
Lets look at modelling.
12Z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 16 days
Pattern is largely unchanged for VIC. The drier air has caused the showery weather to clear overnight after 10-30mm in southern areas. Fine weather for most today is fair, with a partly sunny sky. Cloud thickens tomorrow with the chance of rain developing over the northwest third of the state and that rainfall drifting into NSW overnight into Friday. Then we have the frontal weather that will bring gales, showers, hail and thunder with severe conditions for stock exposed to the wintry weather.
12z GFS Rainfall for the coming 10 days
Rainfall largely unchanged, connected to the westerly wind regime. It is the same old song and dance. The wind regime may tend a bit more northwesterly allowing a ridge to dig down early next week, which may cause the showers to contract to the southwest and the ranges. Then more frontal weather approaches next week, more likely from Thursday next week with another wet and windy weekend to end July looking a good bet based on the guidance.
12z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days
It is a similar story with the Euro model this morning, fine weather today, leading to a clear and cold night with the risk of severe frosts over the inland for Thursday morning. The rain moves back over the northwest of the state tomorrow afternoon before contracting through NSW. Frontal weather looks robust for the weekend with the chance of severe weather in relation to damaging winds and farmers and graziers issues. Showery weather, with moderate falls in those same areas that have copped a wet few weeks in the westerly stream. Next week we dry out a little with a northwest flow but more frontal weather and a moisture surge from the Indian Ocean likely to bring up the chances of rainfall later next week.
12z Euro Rainfall for the coming 10 days
You can track the fine day today, the rainfall through the northwest and north on Thursday into Friday. The fronts look to favour the best rainfall in Victoria, with moderate falls likely. The PW values have come down a tad with these fronts but will continue to monitor that trend as it has been fluctuating. The northwest flow develops next week ahead of more fronts approaching this time next week, so some warmer drier days possible next week which would be nice ahead of a wet end to July and start of August.
Rainfall for the next 10 days
Rainfall tending to be more aligned with a west or northwest flow so we may see the numbers come down a little more in the afternoon forecast packages for southern areas if that trend continues, already reduced the numbers north of the divide through the northern slopes. But rainfall and snowfalls still look handsome for the Alpine areas which loves the west or northwest flow set ups. More rainfall later in the outlook doesn't quite make it into the forecast packages yet, but there is yet more follow up rainfall for those who are needing a lot more.
Frost Forecast for the Thursday morning.
And a reminder that the cold weather today with the dry clear airmass inland will see temperatures plummet upon sunset and set up a nasty snap frost event on Thursday morning.
More updates to come with a look at the weekend frontal weather and an Indian Ocean Update.